HYBE Faces Overselling Despite Record Profits Expected This Year Following BTS’s Comeback

HYBE’s stock price plummeted as the long-awaited full reunion of BTS became a reality. Just two days after BTS concluded their comeback performance at Gwanghwamun Square in Seoul on March 21, HYBE’s shares dropped by 15.55% compared to the previous day. The current stock price is around 293,000 won, representing a decline of approximately 28% from the 52-week high of 405,500 won reached in mid-February.

One factor contributing to the drop was controversy surrounding the attendance count at the Gwanghwamun concert. Initially, estimates suggested up to 260,000 people might attend, but ADOR’s count was 104,000, while the Ministry of Interior and Safety reported around 62,000. The police and Seoul City estimated roughly 40,000 attendees, all of which negatively impacted investor sentiment.

However, the securities industry views this decline as a result of “premature reflection of expectations combined with profit-taking.” Analysts argue that anticipation for BTS’s full reunion had already been reflected in stock prices starting in 2025, and the adjustment occurred once the event actually took place. In fact, the number of viewers for the Netflix-exclusive live broadcast was approximately 18.4 million, demonstrating that global consumer demand remains strong online.

Furthermore, HYBE’s performance outlook for this year is highly positive. BTS’s album sales alone are expected to exceed 120 billion won, with sales reaching 4.03 million copies by the fifth day after release. The world tour scheduled from April through 2027 will consist of 82 shows, and most of the tickets for the initially announced performances in North America and Europe have already sold out. Hana Securities estimates that with an average ticket price of 300,000 won and 5 million attendees, tour revenue could reach at least 1.5 trillion won.

The new fan merchandise line, Weverse, sold out as early as May last year, and membership registrations for concert tickets have also surged sharply.

The securities industry sees the current stock price as an opportunity to buy. Companies such as Kiwoom Securities and Hana Securities have set target prices between 440,000 won and 455,000 won, indicating a potential increase of 50% to 55% from the current level. NH Investment & Securities has also maintained a target price of 500,000 won and recommended increasing exposure to the stock. Institutional investors continue to buy shares in bulk, with net purchases exceeding 100,000 shares.